Vietnam Women vs Japan at Asiad 2026: The Trap of Playing for a Low Score

The instruction Vietnam's women's team carries into their Group E match against Japan at 17:30 Vietnam time on September 17, in the women's football tournament at Asiad 2026, sounds entirely sensible: keep the score down. Facing the Asian Games hosts, a side at the top of the continental hierarchy, that idea is repeated in almost every pre-match bulletin. It is also the idea I believe will turn against Vietnam if the players carry it out with a deep defensive block for ninety minutes.

I write this after watching the 1-2 defeat to Chinese Taipei twice. The scoreline tells one story, the tape tells another. From the 60th minute onward, Vietnam were the team playing in the opponent's half, the team creating two clear chances and one goal. The players who opened that door were Vu Thi Hoa and Ngoc Minh Chuyen, both introduced from the bench.

In the moment of trailing, I learned to read a team by what they throw forward when nothing is left to lose. Vietnam threw forward speed. Vu Thi Hoa moved intelligently, took the pass from Pham Hai Yen and squared it for Nguyen Thi Thanh Nha to cut the deficit to 1-2. Had Ngoc Minh Chuyen finished more cleanly in the late one-on-one, Vietnam would have taken a point.

The format, three groups with the two best third-placed teams advancing, turns this trip to Japan into a tiebreaker calculation rather than an ordinary fixture. Vietnam have almost no route to points against Japan. What they still hold are goal difference and goals scored, the two quantities to be weighed against third-placed teams from the other two groups.

Japan won the 2026 Women's World Cup in Germany and finished runners-up in 2026 in Canada, and dominated the Women's Asian Cup for more than a decade. At continental level, the gap between them and the rest of Southeast Asia is still measured in goals rather than in a single moment.

Earlier in my career I was confident enough to think pressing could not be beaten, until I sat in Osaka, woke at midnight and watched Japan lead Belgium 2-0 in the 2026 World Cup round of 16. I logged 37 successful pressing sequences and published within six hours, predicting Japan would reach the quarter-finals. They lost 2-3. The fatigue signals from the 60th minute were right there on screen; I simply refused to read them. I saw pressing before everyone else, then watched it die on the biggest stage. That lesson has followed me into every women's match since: the 60th minute is where games get written.

A deep defensive block saves no energy. It burns it exponentially. A back line sitting low must rotate constantly with the ball, must jump, must run across, must absorb wave after wave of switches. Attackers run when they have the ball; defenders run even when the ball is thirty metres away.

Japan's possession game and constant switching will turn the second half into a physical ordeal, and the five-substitution rule only stretches that ordeal longer. This is the part rarely discussed: five substitutions were designed to protect players, yet in practice they reward squad depth. Japan can change half their team at the 60th minute without losing quality. Vietnam substitute to preserve energy, not to add it. The final twenty minutes are the most dangerous stretch of the match, and also the stretch in which Vietnam played their best football in the opener.

The window worth investing in is not the first half. It is the opening fifteen minutes of the second half, when Japan have just made changes, have not yet found rhythm and their midfield is looser than usual. Sending Ngoc Minh Chuyen and Vu Thi Hoa on in that exact window, to run at a back line that has already covered forty-five minutes, makes far more sense than bringing them on once the result is settled. A counter-attack timed at the 52nd minute is worth ten minutes of sitting deep at the 80th.

The performances of Tran Thi Thu Xuan and Nguyen Thi Hoa in a rare competitive start also show the next generation is no longer a contingency plan. When a generation passes, I do not go looking for replacements. I go looking for new fire; that is how a team survives. Expert Pham Hai Anh, former assistant to coach Mai Duc Chung and former coach of Ha Nam women's team, said: “I expect coach Hoang Van Phuc to be bolder in giving chances to new, young, energetic players; they are the future of Vietnamese football.”

Coach Hoang Van Phuc himself set out that path when he took the job: “This is a transition period for the team. I will develop the side towards stability without standing still, maintaining experience while creating opportunities for the next generation.” A statement only carries weight when it is verified by a starting line-up, and the Japan match is the cheapest verification he will get.

Where I can be clearly wrong: if Vietnam push forward chasing a goal and expose the space behind the defence, Japan will punish it within seconds. A 0-5 or 0-6 defeat wipes out every tiebreaker calculation and turns the final group match into a formality. The sensible option is to choose a window rather than press for the whole match: organised mid-block pressing for a short spell, then an immediate return to structure. Vietnamese women's football has paid for spells of enthusiasm without cover before.

The message from inside the camp remains determination. Midfielder Ngan Thi Van Su said: “Japan are a strong opponent but Vietnam's women's team have prepared mentally and with determination. We are aiming for a better result than in previous meetings.” That spirit needs a concrete plan so it does not evaporate after the first goal.

What is worth waiting for lies elsewhere: Vietnam holding their running rhythm past the 75th minute, keeping the margin under three goals, and scoring at least once to carry into the third-placed comparison. In recent days the squad have reviewed the footage and confronted their shortcomings. The hunger of the young players reminds me that tactics are the easiest part to write and determination the hardest part to measure.

If coach Hoang Van Phuc hands starting places to at least two players who did not start the opener, and if Vietnam score in the second half, I will believe this team is walking the path it claims. If the line-up is identical to the previous match and the first goal arrives before the 30th minute, we will know the tiebreaker calculation was never taken seriously.